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NEW DELHI: Sending positive signals to India’s agri sector and the overall economy, the India Meteorological Department on Thursday forecast normal and fairly well-distributed monsoon rains for most parts of the country in June-September even as it revised downward the new “rainfall normal” for the four-month season from 88 cm to 87 cm.
IMD said monsoon rainfall over the country is likely to be 99% of the new normal. If the forecast holds true, it’ll be the fourth consecutive year of “normal” to “above normal” southwest (summer) monsoon rains in India. There is a 60% forecast probability of good rainfall, signalling a relief to rain-fed areas which substantially contribute to the production of foodgrain.
However, northeast India, some parts of northwest and southern parts of the south peninsula may receive “below normal” rainfall, IMD said.
While the northeast and parts of northwest and south India could get below normal monsoon rains, this may not affect agricultural operations as the entire rain-fed areas of the country and the monsoon core zone is likely to receive normal to above rainfall during June-September, the India Meteorological Department said.
The spatial distribution, as predicted by IMD, suggests normal to above normal seasonal rainfall over many areas of northern parts of peninsular India and adjoining central India, over foothills of the Himalayas and some parts of northwest India. “Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 99% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of +/- 5%,” said IMD chief M Mohapatra.
The Met department has, for the first time, used an LPA of 87 cm as the new normal for seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole, based on 1971-2020 data, showing a decline in average annual rainfall in India over the long period. Earlier, it had been taking the normal of annual 88 cm rainfall during June-September based on 1961-2010 data which was revised downward from 89 cm three years ago in 2019.
IMD said monsoon rainfall over the country is likely to be 99% of the new normal. If the forecast holds true, it’ll be the fourth consecutive year of “normal” to “above normal” southwest (summer) monsoon rains in India. There is a 60% forecast probability of good rainfall, signalling a relief to rain-fed areas which substantially contribute to the production of foodgrain.
However, northeast India, some parts of northwest and southern parts of the south peninsula may receive “below normal” rainfall, IMD said.
While the northeast and parts of northwest and south India could get below normal monsoon rains, this may not affect agricultural operations as the entire rain-fed areas of the country and the monsoon core zone is likely to receive normal to above rainfall during June-September, the India Meteorological Department said.
The spatial distribution, as predicted by IMD, suggests normal to above normal seasonal rainfall over many areas of northern parts of peninsular India and adjoining central India, over foothills of the Himalayas and some parts of northwest India. “Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 99% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of +/- 5%,” said IMD chief M Mohapatra.
The Met department has, for the first time, used an LPA of 87 cm as the new normal for seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole, based on 1971-2020 data, showing a decline in average annual rainfall in India over the long period. Earlier, it had been taking the normal of annual 88 cm rainfall during June-September based on 1961-2010 data which was revised downward from 89 cm three years ago in 2019.
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